2014 Lok Sabha: Most likely post-poll scenarios

Source: 2014 Lok Sabha projections on Minhaz Merchant’s Blog “Head On” on Times of India Blogs, 25th March 2013

“The most likely post-poll scenarios, in order of probability:

Scenario 1. BJP + allies + leaning BJP (251) scoop up independents and at least one more ally. Unlikelier things have happened in Indian politics.

Scenario 2. The unattached regionals (117) steal from the two sets of “leaners” – TRS (13), BJD (18), AIADMK (22) – to get up to around 170 seats and, like Chandra Shekhar in November 1990-May 1991 and Deve Gowda/Gujral in 1996-98, form a rump “third front” government with the Congress + allies (129) supporting it from outside. That arrangement though would run into immediate problems given the deep schisms between the SP/BSP, DMK/AIADMK and TMC/Left Front.

Scenario 3. The Congress + allies + leaning Congress (177) form the government with unattached regionals (JDU, TDP, SP) to get up to around 223 seats. Such a combination too would face instability from the start.

The key problem: between them, the Congress and the BJP have just 263 seats – less than half the Lok Sabha, making any formation unstable.”